Will NATO’s Warsaw Summit Provoke Russia?

Writing about NATO’s recent meeting at the Warsaw Summit, Emma Ashford of Cato at Liberty, comments on the fundamental conflict between the goals of simultaneously reassuring NATO’s Eastern members and preventing further military buildup by Russia.

In fact, Ashford observes, “The expected announcement of the deployment of four battalions of additional troops to the Baltics has already produced heated rhetoric from Russia.” This will likely create a “security spiral” of increasing buildup on both sides, but not change the “fact that Russia could likely conquer the Baltics quickly if it so chose.”

Ashford rightly adds that it is also unclear why NATO leaders do not consider NATO’s mutual defense pledge sufficient to deter Russian aggression against member countries. Many at the summit will also wish to reaffirm the alliance’s “open-door policy,” but creating new NATO allies on the Russian border will increase tension in the region.

Furthermore, Ashford also reflects that the alliance’s defensive function is at odds with its modern practice of spreading Western values.

The next Warsaw Summit could be a forum to address these larger concerns, but no one should hold their breath.

More Blog Posts

04-01-2021 07:38am

Order and chaos: Embracing an emergent order mindset

We are surrounded by order that occurs without design or control on all sides. Yet we rarely think about this order.

Read more

03-24-2021 08:16am

Supporting the emerging generation of tech leaders

An employer and associate perspective from the Emerging Tech Policy Leaders Program, which received 90 applications for its first cohort.

Read more

03-18-2021 08:42am

Where should K-12 go next?

We ask two of our partners in K-12 education to tell us what they’ve learned in the last year, and what they think should happen next.   

Read more

Sign up for updates